The Record · how we grade a comeback, and how the grades hold up

EVERY COMEBACK HAS THREE ACTS. EVERY ONE GETS A NUMBER.

"Great comeback" is an opinion. "About 1 in 48 teams in that spot win the game" is a fact you can check. We publish the definitions, the rates and the method, we grade last night's games with the same tables we grade the all-time greats, and we show the running score in public.

The record since August 31, 202623 games reached a Hole

1came back

1expected at the published rates

Every game that reaches a Hole is listed here with the published rate beside what actually happened. Over a few weeks the two will differ; over a season they settle together.

Down 2 entering the ninthpublished 1 in 151 of 11 · 0.76 expected

Down 3 entering the ninthpublished 1 in 480 of 12 · 0.25 expected

8 of the 23 were added from the box score after a clock fix in the first days; the rest were recorded as the games were played.

THE HOLES WE WATCH

A Hole is a defined moment where a team is down at a point that matters. Each one below has a published definition, a rate from the record of past games, and a detector that recognizes it while the game is live.

MLBLive now

Down 2 entering the ninth1 in 152,112 games

Down 3 entering the ninth1 in 481,689 games

MLB official linescores, 2021 to 2025, regular season and postseason.

College FootballSeason underway · Saturdays. Rates published; live detection next.

Down 8 to 14, 6:00 left1 in 291,883 games

Down 15 to 21, start of the fourth1 in 651,438 games

FBS play-by-play, 2014 to 2025, games between two FBS programs, regular season.

NFLWeek 1 opens Thursday, September 10

Down 8 to 14, 6:00 left1 in 171,144 games

NFL play-by-play, 2010 to 2025, regular season.

NBAOpening night in October

Down 20 at the half1 in 15369 games

Down 15 after three1 in 15734 games

Down 10, 4:00 left1 in 26971 games

Down 6, 2:00 left1 in 121,121 games

NBA play-by-play, 2021 to 2026, regular season and playoffs.

THE THREE ACTS

THE HOLEA defined moment where a team is down at a point that matters: two runs entering the ninth, ten points with six minutes left. Every Hole has a published definition and a rate.

THE TURNThe play or the run where the game flips. In our stories it is written from the scoring plays in the league's own record, not from memory.

THE COMEBACKThe trailing team wins the game, overtime and extra innings included. Nothing less counts.

THE LADDER

The word always travels with the number. The number is the share of teams in that exact spot who went on to win, in our record of past games.

RALLYbetter than 1 in 12

SURGE1 in 12 to 25

STUNNER1 in 25 to 50

HISTORIC1 in 50 to 100

MIRACLErarer than 1 in 100

Definitions DEF-2026.1. Rates RATES-2026.2. A comeback is the trailing team winning the game, overtime and extra innings included. Games detected live carry the time they were recorded; games reconstructed from the box score afterwards are marked as such.