THE COMEBACK KID
The Record · how we grade a comeback, and how the grades hold up

THE RECORD.

"Great comeback" is an opinion. "About 1 in 48 teams in that spot win the game" is a fact you can check. We publish the definitions, the rates and the method, we grade last night's games with the same tables we grade the all-time greats, and we show the running score in public.

RECORD SUMMARY
Came back18since January 18, 2026
Expected at the published rates24.82the rates below, summed over every game that reached a Hole
Games reached a Hole237147 recorded from the box score, the rest live
Every Hole we watch · the published rate beside what happened this season8 Holes
NFL
Down 10 or more at any point2of 17 came backpublished 1 in 6 · 2.71 expected
Down 7 or more in the fourth quarter0of 14 came backpublished 1 in 10 · 1.35 expected
Down 8 to 14, 6:00 left0of 7 came backpublished 1 in 17 · 0.42 expected
College Football
Down 7 or more in the fourth quarter4of 76 came backpublished 1 in 12 · 6.13 expected
Down 8 to 14, 6:00 left0of 15 came backpublished 1 in 29 · 0.52 expected
MLB
Down 2 entering the ninth3of 45 came backpublished 1 in 15 · 3.09 expected
Down 3 entering the ninth0of 27 came backpublished 1 in 48 · 0.56 expected

Every game that reaches a Hole is counted with the published rate beside what happened. Over a few weeks the two differ; over a season they settle together.

THE HOLES WE WATCH

A Hole is a defined moment where a team is down at a point that matters. Each one below has a published definition, a rate from the record of past games, and a detector that recognizes it while the game is live.

MLBLive now
Down 2 entering the ninth1 in 15 · 2,112 games
Home team trailing 1 in 12 · visiting team trailing 1 in 18
Down 3 entering the ninth1 in 48 · 1,689 games
Home team trailing 1 in 42 · visiting team trailing 1 in 57
MLB official linescores, 2021 to 2025, regular season and postseason.
College FootballSeason underway · Saturdays. Rates published; live detection next.
Down 7 or more in the fourth quarter1 in 12 · 8,044 games
Down 8 to 14, 6:00 left1 in 29 · 1,883 games
Down 15 to 21, start of the fourth1 in 65 · 1,438 games
FBS play-by-play, 2014 to 2025, games between two FBS programs, regular season.
NFLWeek 1 opens Thursday, September 10
Down 7 or more in the fourth quarter1 in 10 · 3,609 games
Down 10 or more at any point1 in 6 · 3,686 games
Down 8 to 14, 6:00 left1 in 17 · 1,144 games
NFL play-by-play, 2010 to 2025, regular season.
NBAOpening night in October
Down 10 or more in the fourth quarter1 in 16 · 4,675 games
Down 20 at the half1 in 15 · 369 games
Down 15 after three1 in 15 · 734 games
Down 10, 4:00 left1 in 26 · 971 games
Down 6, 2:00 left1 in 12 · 1,121 games
NBA play-by-play, 2021 to 2026, regular season and playoffs.
GolfLive now
Won from 3 or more back entering the final round1 in 4 · 703 games
ESPN PGA Tour leaderboards, 2010 to 2025, 703 four-round events with a full 54-hole leaderboard.
THE THREE ACTS
The HoleA defined moment where a team is down at a point that matters: two runs entering the ninth, ten points with six minutes left. Every Hole has a published definition and a rate.
The TurnThe play or the run where the game flips. In our stories it is written from the scoring plays in the league's own record, not from memory.
The ComebackThe trailing team wins the game, overtime and extra innings included. Nothing less counts.
THE LADDER

The word always travels with the number. The number is the share of teams in that exact spot who went on to win, in our record of past games.

RALLYbetter than 1 in 12
SURGE1 in 12 to 25
STUNNER1 in 25 to 50
HISTORIC1 in 50 to 100
MIRACLErarer than 1 in 100

Definitions DEF-2026.1. Rates RATES-2026.5. A comeback is the trailing team winning the game, overtime and extra innings included. Games detected live carry the time they were recorded; games reconstructed from the box score afterwards are marked as such.